Lotze and dozens of scientists from across the world incorporated climate models into ecosystem models to determine how rising global and ocean temperatures (and their associated impacts) will affect animal populations over time.
Nearly every paper measuring something about climate change uses RCP scenarios* to set up a computer model to measure some kind of physical change. For example, a paper from last year used RCPs to measure physical changes inside and outside of marine protected areas (MPAs). What makes Lotze et al. 2019 groundbreaking is that researchers used RCP scenarios to inform a composite of ecosystem models that predict ecosystem changes, not just physical changes. Co-author Marta Coll of the Institute of Marine Science in Barcelona said, “Our study represents a major undertaking, where we used for the first time a comparative and standardized approach of 6 global marine ecosystem models forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios with and without fishing. The process of incorporating RCP scenarios into an ensemble of various ecosystem models was
6 years in the making, according to another co-author, Tyler Eddy.
There are two major takeaways concerning fisheries:
- The composition of fish in the ocean will change dramatically and
- Fishing has very little impact on what will happen.
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Editor's note: AquaBounty is doing its part to reduce negative environmental impacts by reducing the carbon footprint of salmon production.